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03/10/2010 - Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brandon Roy scored 19 points and pulled down eight rebounds as Portland beat Sacramento for the fifth straight time, 88-81, at the Rose Garden.
Nicolas Batum and Andre Miller each tallied 14 points for the Trail Blazers, who won for the fourth time in five contests and continue to hold the eighth spot in the Western Conference.
Marcus Camby had a solid defensive effort with eight rebounds and five blocks, while LaMarcus Aldridge scored 13 and Martell Webster added 11 off the bench.
Tyreke Evans had 18 points, six rebounds and six assists for the Kings, who dropped their third in a row. Carl Landry scored 17 and Beno Udrih 13, but Sacramento was held without a point for a key three-minute stretch late in the game.
A pair of free throws from Landry had the Kings within 81-78 with 3:35 left in the game, but Batum countered with a layup to start Portland's push to seal the victory. Roy drained a jumper with 2:07 left and then converted 1-of-2 foul shots with 1:23 left.
Miller's two foul shot capped Portland's big 7-0 run with 30.8 seconds left for the 88-78 cushion.
Sacramento held a 29-25 lead after one quarter that saw its share of momentum shifts. Portland used a 10-1 run late in the second to lead 52-40 before Landry ended the half on a jam.
Portland saw its lead trimmed to a pair at one juncture of the third, but then widened the margin to 73-62 moving to the fourth as Webster drained a three- ball in the final minute.
Game Notes
Camby missed the previous game due to a sprained ankle...Before Tuesday, Portland had scored 100 points or more in seven straight games for the first time since an eight-game streak from November 8-21, 1995.
<< Blue Jackets-Ducks Sum
Columbus 1 2 2-5Anaheim 0 0 2-2First Period-1, Columbus, Dorsett 4 (Vermette, Blunden), 8:55.Second Period-2, Columbus, Voracek 10 (Tyutin, Stralman), 8:14 (pp). 3, Columbus, Tyutin 5 (Voracek, Umberger), 13:07.Third Period-4, Anaheim, Visnov
<< Samuelsson nets hat trick, Canucks rally past Avs
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mikael Samuelsson recorded his first NHL hat
trick and Jannik Hansen scored a controversial goal late in the third period
to help the Canucks rally to beat the Colorado Avalanche, 6-4, at the Pepsi
Center.
<< Butler takes Horizon League crown in rout
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack each scored
14 points, as the 12th-ranked Butler Bulldogs officially punched their ticket
to the NCAA Tournament with a 70-45 victory over Wright State in the Horizon
League
<< Oakland punches NCAA tourney ticket
Sioux Falls, SD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Oakland punched its NCAA Tournament ticket
for the second time in school history, climbing on the back of Derick Nelson's
36 points to win the Summit League Tournament Championship with a 76-64
victory
Bryant's heroics lift Lakers past Raptors >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kobe Bryant played hero again, sinking the
winning jumper from the right baseline with 1.9 seconds left, and the Los
Angeles Lakers snapped a three-game skid with a 109-107 victory over the
Toronto
Garciaparra calls it a career >>
Fort Myers, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox have called a morning
news conference at which time infielder Nomar Garciaparra is expected to
announce his retirement.
According to Boston sports talk station WEEI, Garciaparra
Time is now to eliminate head shots in hockey >>
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A concussion is serious, and the NHL may
finally be waking up to the fact. Anyone who has had a serious knock will tell
you that the effects can be scary. While the league has spent years dancing
around the s
Robert Morris battles Quinnipiac for NEC crown >>
Hamden, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top-seeded Quinnipiac Bobcats and the
second-seeded Robert Morris Colonials are set to collide in the championship
game of the 2010 Northeast Conference Tournament, and the winner will receive
an automatic bid
MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?
Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite. Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight. With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites. As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).
Midwest
#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler
The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April. Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT. After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games. Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season. As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers. Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS). Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field. With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.
#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV
As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year. If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season. As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well. This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons. Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late. There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games. It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.
East
#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown
“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season. Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU. They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games. With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field. Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense. Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc. The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range. Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.
#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC
The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country. Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times. Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter. UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen. UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS. An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games. This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS. USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types. An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough. USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS. They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12. When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.
With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action. Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”. By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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